July 12, 2026:
With the war in Ukraine winding down, Russia is finding itself short of manpower. Over four years of war have left 1.4 million dead, wounded, disabled, and missing soldiers. After the war began, Russia mobilized 318,000 civilians to become soldiers. That also triggered more than a million Russian military-age men to flee the country over the next few years.
Those who do end up in the Russian army received little training and often little more than boots, a combat uniform, a cloth cap or maybe a steel helmet, and little else. These men were expected to scrounge or receive more equipment before they reached the battlefield. Once there, plenty of well-equipped dead soldiers were available to plunder. During the first year, the Russian army suffered heavy casualties against the better-trained, equipped, and led Ukrainian forces.
The Russian government realized that something more was needed to obtain willing soldiers. To do so, Russia relied more on existing military enlistment contracts. New soldiers would receive a signing bonus of anywhere between $2,500 and $15,000. This was impressive as the average civilian wage was about $5,000 a year. Once in the army, the soldier would receive $2,200 to $3,000 a month, depending on rank and skills. If the soldier were killed, his family received about $80,000, which local officials often stole some or all of it and told the family that the money was lost in the system and they were looking for it as soon as they got back from their vacation to Spain.
The size of signing bonuses varied depending on where the new soldier lived. For most of the war, the amounts have already been described. But in the last year, recruiting reached Moscow, St Petersburg and other large cities where signing bonuses of $50,000-$75,000 were required. So far, nearly 600,000 soldiers have been mobilized via cash inducements. Another source of recruits has been convicts, 200,000 of them so far. They are offered less money, but the assurance of a pardon and freedom if they survive at least six months of combat. Few did. Other sources included about 50,000 Central Asian recruits on paper. North Korea sold Russia the services of over 20,000 combat and support troops.
Throughout the war, Russia had problems obtaining enough sergeants and officers. These combat leaders suffered heavy casualties at the front, and it was difficult to replace them. Early in the war, the officers were veteran professionals. Most of those were lost by late 2023. Sergeants, or any soldier showing potential, were offered officer rank. Most accepted but didn’t last long in Ukraine. Eventually, word filtered back to Russia that service in Ukraine was a virtual death sentence. In reality, only about half the Russian troops sent to Ukraine became casualties or went missing. Good jobs were hard to find, so many men took a chance, and the money, and tried their luck in Ukraine.
Russia won’t officially admit it yet, but the war in Ukraine is ending, and Russia lost. Leader Vladimir Putin is seeking ways to explain away the defeat of his Special Operation without admitting that the war ruined the Russian economy and left Russia with two million fewer young men. At the same time, Putin is planning future combat operations against NATO countries to see if the NATO alliance really works and whether attacking one member will bring all of NATO into the conflict. Putin believes NATO is a house of cards that will collapse if tested. He has little to lose by testing NATO’s resolve. Russia plans to expand westward, and these tests are expected to take place by the end of the decade.